Wildly Inaccurate 2012 NHL Stanley Cup Final Prediction

Pic of the day:  A picture of the Stanley Cup, circa 1957.  Seated with it is former Referee and NHL League President Clarence Campbell


If I knew the answer to that I’d bet $10,000 on the game and retire from coaching!

Montreal Canadiens Coach Toe Blake, after being asked if his team would win an upcoming game.


I don’t know everything.  Prognostication is nothing more than using your head and taking guesses with whatever information is available, and listening to your heart.  My head told me the Kings would win, and pretty easily.  My heart told me the Rangers could beat the Devils.

Head 1, Heart 0.

I nailed the Kings winning it in 5.  I picked the Rangers in 6, and I was right as far as how many games but got the team wrong.  I also said that Anze Kopitar would step his game up a notch.  He had only scored three goals in the previous two series.  He scored 5 points against the ‘Yots, and 3 goals.  Nice.  I said the Rangers devils series would be smashmouth hockey, and it was.

The Rangers and the ‘Yots lost for the same reason.  The offenses came up small.  The Rangers had more offense but lost just the same.  They suffered from the disappearance of their entire first line.  The entire line was ineffective out on the ice, the Devils had their number every game.  6 points for the combination of Hagelin – Richards – Gaborik, for the entire series.  The ‘Yots had 3 goals in the first three games of the Conference finals.  Neither team, when placed in that light, deserve to be in the Stanley cup finals.

The Devils outshined the Rangers, outplayed them at every turn, and the Kings continued to dominate the West.

That round is over though.  The Stanley cup finals are here.  New Jersey.  Los Angeles.  The City of Angels have never had a cup to call their own.  This might be 40 year old Marty Broduer’s last shot at the cup.

Who will win?

F*cked if I know!



Stanley Cup Final:  (6) New Jersey Devils vs. (8) Los Angeles Kings;  Looking at the offense, there are a flurry of statistics you could use to determine who has been the best so far. None would be very compelling and most would point to a very even match up. Ilya Kovalchuk has 5 power play goals during the playoffs, more than anyone else by far.  The next closest remaining players are Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Zach Parise and Patrik Elias with 2 each.

However, Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar are hellaciously talented players who can find the back of the net frequently.  Same with Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk.   The top five players in plus-minus in the playoffs are on these two teams, three on the Kings (Brown, Kopitar, Doughty) and 2 on the Devils (Salvador, Henrique)  If the goaltending doesn’t hold up, there may well be a lot of 6-5 games in this series.

But with the goaltenders in question, I severely doubt that will happen.

Jonathan Quick has been the best playoff goalie I have seen this year, and the best in a long time. That is saying something too, there have been some amazing goal-tending the last few years in the playoffs.  Mr. Quick has given up only 22 goals in 14 games and lost only twice.  Martin Brodeur has played more games than Mr. Quick played more minutes, faced more shots and still, at times looked like the man he was over a decade ago.  The man who brought 3 championships to the Devils organization.   Mr. Quick has faced more shots per game than Marty has, and has a lower GAA average to boot though.   So if this series turns on goaltending, then the advantage, however slight, must go to the Kings and Mr. Quick. And frankly I think this series does in fact turn on goal-tending…. aaaand some timely scoring by Mike Richards and Anze Kopitar.  So…

The pick:  The Kings in 6.


That’s it from here, America.  Catch ya later.  More tonight, methinks.

Wildly Inaccurate 2012 NHL Conference Final Playoff Predictions

Pic of the day:  First Stanley cup.  A pic of the Montreal Hockey club  after winning the first ever Stanley cup in 1893.


Now, before I get to my picks I have to make a statement.  It was a complete and total aberration that I picked all four winners for the second round.  Shocked the hell out of me.  I do not think that in the last 5 years I have been quite that successful with my picks.  In any sport.  My best pick before this was nailing the score of the Steelers – Cardinals Superbowl.  And that was overshadowed by the fact that I picked the Cardinals to lose in every round.

No such shadow over last rounds amazing success.   Well… actually there is.  But I don’t know that I can be blamed for them.  I don’t think anyone would have picked the Blues to get swept, and I had them losing in 6.  And frankly I am disappointed with the Predators. I had them putting up a helluva better fight in that series than what they actually did, and while I had them losing I had them losing in 7, and they were lucky to make it to 5 games.

I had the Devils in 6 (Devils won in 5) and the Rangers in 7(nailed it,) so there I was closer than I was with the western conference picks.

Well, knowing me, the accuracy of the picks of the last round were pure luck.  I’m not expecting that to continue, so with out further adieu,



Eastern Conference Finals1)  New York Rangers vs.  6) New Jersey Devils;  Smashmouth hockey.  Get used to the term.  These teams know each other, and they don’t like each other.  The first two rounds for the Rangers have been tough hard fought battles, but they will seem minor skirmishes in comparison into the bloody mosh pit that these games are going to be.  And the Devils are walking in rested and ready.

Now the Rangers have suffered from a dearth of scoring, but that is more a product of the team defenses they faced, and superlative goalies they’ve faced than an actual lack of capacity to score.  When they find open ice they score and they win. Example:  Michael Del Zotto’s game 7 game winner against the Caps.  He was free for a few seconds, and he sent the Caps home because of it

The Devils have had more scoring than the Rangers all postseason.  The Devils never scored less than 3 goals in any game against the Flyers, and only twice scored less than 2 goals since the playoffs began. The Rangers only scored more than 3 goals 4 times in both rounds they’ve played, 2 in each round.

The Rangers have shown great resiliency in the face of extraordinarily stifling defense while bringing their own.  The Devils haven’t had to.  The Devils will need to show they can overcome strong defense, which they have yet to face.  I don’t see them doing it, and I see the Rangers opening up their offense here just a bit. Rangers in 6.


Western Conference Finals3) Phoenix Coyotes vs 8 ) Los Angeles Kings;  Both of these teams have had strong scoring, and both of these teams have had outstanding goal-tending.  Mike Smith, a man who cut his teeth in the NHL backing up Marty Turco in Dallas a few years ago has more than come out of Marty’s shadow and shown himself to be a force in net to be reckoned with.  A 1.77 GAA and a .950 save percentage is as close to perfect as a goalie can get.

Jonathan Quick has matched him and more, as far as his numbers are concerned, with a minisculce 1.55 GAA and an identical .950 save percentage, and has only lost once, and no one has been more successful in net than J. Quick that way.

The offenses here are going to be hard pressed to score with those stone walls out there in net.  Here I think I see one team that has an advantage.  And that is the Kings.  Anze Kopitar, who is a great player who has not yet shined in these playoffs(only 3 goals,) will step it up a notch here.  Justin Williams and Mike Richards are a hellacious tandem that have scored and played well together.

The ‘Yots do have scoring on their team as well, they didn’t get here just with goal-tending, but I do not know that it will be enough to get past the steamroller than is the L.A. Kings.  Kings In 5.


And is it me, or does Brian Boyle of the New York Rangers look exactly like a Guy Fawkes mask?  Just saying…


That’s it from here, America.  G’night.

Wildly Inaccurate Second Round 2012 NHL Playoff Predictions

Pic of the day:  First Stanley cup.  A pic of the Montreal Hockey club  after winning the first ever Stanley cup in 1893.

Hmmm…. Deja Vu…


A few times a year I put on my prognosticators hat and try to figure out what will happen in the NHL playoffs before they actually happen.  Silly me.  Only occasionally do I get it right, and when I do it’s usually more about dumb luck than anything else, something I have in common with everyone else who does this crap.

Reading that statement, you might think that I either have no confidence in my picks and picking ability (which could be further implied by the title of my picks columns in general) or am jaded enough to not care.  Not true.  I have plenty of confidence in my picks, but confidence doesn’t make the picks right, any more than having an opinion about politics makes it automatically right just because you have it.   I’m plenty confident, I just get it wrong a fair bit.  Nothing to be ashamed of.

And while I’m jaded I care about my picks, even if they SUCK.

Even if they are amazingly wrong.  Before I get to the second round crapfest, lets review what I picked in the first round and how that turned out.

My Eastern conference picks were sub-par, and that is being nice about it.  The only pick that I nailed was my pick of the New York Rangers beating Ottawa in 7.  And even there I was wrong.  I said that Callahan and Gaborik would have to do well in order to not lose.  Gaborik was a non factor throughout the series.  I picked the Bruins to win in 5 games, and they lost in 7.   I don’t think anyone foresaw Braden Holtby holding the B’s at bay, or the Bruins underachieving quite as much as they did.  I had the Devils winning in 5.  They won in 7 and the Panthers were much stronger against them than I gave them credit for, so I’m calling that a miss.  And I picked the Penguins in 5.  With the porous goal-tending the Pens put up, I could have beaten the Pens this series.

My Western conference picks were just as bad as my Eastern conference counterparts.  I picked the Canucks in 7, and they lost in 5. Roberto Luongo sucked so hard that he didn’t see a second worth of time after he got his ass handed to him by the Kings the second time in a row.  The only pick I got right was the Blues winning in 5, with the Blues holding the Sharks to 1 goal or less for 3 games.  And I picked the Blackhawks in 5 and the Red Wings in 7.  I’m not sure I could have gotten those picks more wrong.

2 of 8 on the picks.  Wow.  Those picks just plain Sucked.  Out.  Loud.  Which brings us to the…



Eastern Conference picks: 

1) New York Rangers  vs.  7)  Washington Capitals.  The Capitals scored 16 goals against the Bruins.  Most of the time the Caps had a very hard time scoring.  The reason they won was Braden Holtby and the defense in front of him held down the Bruins, not their own offense.  The Rangers won much the same way.  It was King Henrik and the D in front that gave the Rangers the win vs. Ottawa, especially when the chips were down and they had to win 2 in a row, including game 6 on the road.  All things here point to a low scoring long grind of a series. Sounds like more of the same for both teams.  Home ice will be kingmaker here.  Rangers in 7.

5) Philadelphia Flyers vs 6)  New Jersey Devils.  The Flyers scored at what could only be called an unprecedented pace.  The Devils, like the Rangers, had to come back to win 2 in a row.  I don’t know that the Flyers can keep up the offensive pace against the Devils.  Claude Giroux and Danny Briere are good, but I don’t know that these two can continue at an over a point a night pace.  I don’t see the Flyers being able to multiple players put up hat tricks on the same night against Marty Brodeur.   Devils in 6.

Western Conference picks:

2) St. Louis Blues vs. 8)  Los Angeles Kings.  The Kings pulled off the upset on the ‘Nucks.  The Blues are not the ‘Nucks.  They have better goal-tending.  They have a better defense.  The Kings are not a joke though.  They proved they have offense against Roberto Luongo and the two headed ‘Nucks goal tending tandem.  And Jonathan Quick is one of the best goaltenders around, and proved it against the ‘Nucks. On top of that the Blues O is limited, half of their goal scoring in round one was from 2 people.  That’s a problem the Kings’ll be able to exploit.  Kings in 6.

3) Phoenix Coyotes vs.  4) Nashville Predators. Both teams played up to their opponents and beat them down.  The Coyotes had a slight edge offensively, and the Preds had a slight goal-tending edge in round one (though the ‘Yotes had 1 shutout and the Preds none)  These teams are nearly mirror-images of each other in a variety of ways, offensively and defensively.  I’m leaning towards the better playoff offense here.  Radim Vrbata needs to shine here for this pick to work though.  He got shut down by the Hawks, and he needs to step up for the Coyotes to win in 7.  Which they will.


That’s it from here, America.  G’night.

Thursday Night Late Night Idle Talk

Pic of the day: Carpenter at work on Douglas Dam, Tennessee (1942)


I love hard work. I live to sweat, to earn my daily bread by the sweat of my brow. I haven’t worked all week and frankly that is no damn good. I’ve been sitting on my ass not making money. It kicks my ass. I have had slow weeks before but this is the first week where I’ve had no work in three months. It doesn’t sit well with me. I want to work. I am tempted to work on my resume and send it out to people just so I can find something that get me working every day.

I’m getting lazy to boot. Sleeping late, not exercising. And I’m eating too much. And this is all from a mere 5 days off. I need to get my lazy ass moving. I’m not making excuses, it’s stupid crap.

At least I’m still running like a maniac. Averaging over 9 miles a run so far this week. Gonna try to go long and hit the hills hard until next week. Next week I have work. Next week will be better. I can’t wait.


In the last analysis, what is the significance of life? If we divide mankind into two great classes, we may say that one works for a living, the other does not need to. But working for a living cannot be the meaning of life, since it would be a contradiction to say that the perpetual production of the conditions for subsistence is an answer to the question about its significance which, by the help of this, must be conditioned. The lives of the other class have in general no other significance than that they consume the conditions of subsistence. And to say that the significance of life is death, seems again a contradiction.

Soren Keirkegaard


Watched hockey tonight. Don’t do it often, so this was a real treat. Watching the Rangers hand the Senators their lunch made it even more of a treat. The Rangers took control of the game after coach Torts called a timeout. The team came alive after that, and scored 2 goals in the second period, including what ended up being the game winner by Brian Boyle with around a minute left in the middle period. They got sloppy during the last half of the third period and gave up 2 goals, but the effort was strong, and the win felt damn good.


My wife’s team, the Bruins won as well.The Caps goalie Braden Holtby, who started after both the Cap #1 and #2 goalies came up hurt, came up big and got the Caps to OT before Chris Kelly scored the only goal of the game about a minute in. Looking forward to a Rangers/Bruins eastern conference finals.


And now for something completely different…

Reading comments about fracking generating local earthquakes on a story on Bloomberg.com, about how it has been around since the 1940, and how the whole story is a load of crap. Read that particular bit from someone who claimed to be from Oklahoma who had been in the oil business and about how it’s a bunch of bullshit, all this negativity about fracking.

Then I went on to read about how the fracking that went on from the 1940’s until the 1990’s was different than the stuff that is creating the earthquakes. The stuff that went on early apparently was low volume fracking, that generally used between 20 and 80 thousand gallons of liquid per well.

What gets done now is that instead of thousands of gallons per well being used, millions are used, generally between 2 and 3 million gallons, and has apparently increased tectonic activity underneath the mid-western United States. From the 1970’s until the year 2000 the area experienced on average 21 earthquakes a year. That number has jumped since the beginning of the use of high volume fracking. There were 87 earthquakes in 2010 and 134 in 2011.

Now I don’t know a great deal about the science on this, I’m just not knowledgeable in this particular area, but it seems to me that low pressure fracking is perfectly safe and acceptable. It did no harm, it does no harm, no worries, keep at it. But the increase in pressure brought about by the increase in fluid injection seems to be a bit too much of a negative to be allowed to continue.

I’m not a fan of unnecessary legal action, but this looks like a clear cut case where those who are in power need to seriously look at the potential negative consequences of high volume fracking.

After all, an earthquake caused by high volume liquid injection fracking, even a small one that damages an underground pipeline and spills oil everywhere, that gets into the ground water and makes life difficult if not impossible for people and wildlife in the area is entirely unacceptable. We need better that this from the oil industry. If they can get oil using high pressure fracking, they can get it other ways. And if they can’t, that is their problem, not mine.


That’s it from here, America. G’night.

Wildly Inaccurate First Round 2012 NHL Playoff Predictions

Pic of the day:  First Stanley cup.  A pic of the Montreal Hockey club  after winning the first ever Stanley cup in 1893.


It’s gonna be a party.  A big party.  A big messy ass whupping party in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.  Here are my WILDLY INACCURATE picks for the first round.  Enjoy.


Eastern Conference:

1) N.Y. Rangers vs. 8) Ottawa Senators  The pick:  Rangers in 7.  The Sens are a damn good offensive team.  The Rangers are a great defensive team with a few top notch scorers.  That D should be enough to hold down the Sens, even though they couldn’t do it during the regular season. Callahan and Gaborik have to stand out here.  If they don’t, you could watch this Rangers team collapse and lose in round one, but I’m sticking with the Rangers here.

2)  Boston Bruins vs. 7) Washington Capitals  The pick:  Bruins in 5.  The Bruins haven’t changed all that much from the team that won it all last year.  And they know it.  Tim Thomas is still one of the best goalies in the league, he should be able to hold down whoever the Caps have in goal as well as Ovie and the rest of the Caps.

3) Florida Panthers vs. 6) New Jersey Devils  The pick:  Devils in 5.  The Devils, though a number 6 seed, are one of the better teams in the east.  Jose Theodore and the defense in front of him won’t be able to stop the Devils second line, and the Devils first line will burn them worse than the Henrique and the second.

4) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. 5) Philadelphia Flyers  The pick:  Penguins in 6.  This is going to be a knock down drag out fight, and could frankly go either way.  The Penguins have the advantage with their potent offense that only got more dangerous when Sidney Crosby came back and quietly had perhaps the best end of the season any player had this year.  The only reason I don’t have the Pens sweeping here is that The Flyers ain’t no joke.


Western Conference:

1) Vancouver Canucks vs.  8) Los Angeles Kings  The pick:  Canucks in 7. The Canucks are a great team, but they lose something when they don’t have both Sedin twins on the ice.  With Daniel Sedin out at least for some of this series with a concussion, expect the ‘nucks to struggle a bit before finding their playoff legs.

2) St. Louis Blues vs.  7) San Jose Sharks  The pick:  Blues in 5.  The Sharks aren’t a bad team by any stretch of the imagination.  The Blues are not a great offensive team, what they are is a dominant defensive team that takes what few opportunities it gets and capitalizes.  They’ll capitalize here.  Plus, the Sharks always suck come playoff time.

3) Phoenix Coyotes vs.  6) Chicago Blackhawks  The pick:  Blackhawks in 6. The Blackhawks have a plethora of scorers that can take apart even the best of goaltenders. Mike Smith is having a helluva year as the  #1 starter for the first time in his career in Phoenix.  That won’t help him here.  The Blackhawks are gonna tee off on him here.

4) Nashville Predators vs. 5) Detroit Red Wings   The pick:  Red Wings in 7.  The Wings are always a team that threatens to go deep into the Stanley cup Playoffs. The Predators though are no joke.  They have scoring punch on all 4 lines, a power play that is second to none, and Pekka Rinne, one of the best goalies in the NHL.  If it wasn’t the Red Wings they were playing, I’d pick Nashville to go deep into the playoffs.  The Wings are just too good to be contained in the first round.


That’s it from here, America.  G’night.