Recession, Part II?


I read the news from a variety of sources every day.  Bloomberg, The Los Angeles Times, Xinhua, Voice of America, Sydney Morning Herald.  It keeps me honest, jumping around like that, keeping from getting all my news from one source.  I’ve been no different in my viewing, listening and reading of the debt ceiling news.

The news has been dark from all sources, obviously.  The news has been nervous sounding, also obviously.  The nervousness is born of the fear that we, as a nation, will be irrevocably damaged by this current political exchange.  Seems right.  The Boehner plan, that failure that threatens America’s immediate financial future, has already been shot down by the Senate.  Meaning that the Reid plan is now on the table, and may run into as staunch an amount of opposition as Boehner’s plan ran into. 

It will not get much in the way of backing of house Republicans when it moves back to the house for final authorization, and there will probably be some house Dems who will not vote for it.  So there is some level of trepidation about the congress being able to pass a workable deal.

It is also dangerous because we are already dealing with a seemingly wounded economy.  The consumer sentiment index is down, durable goods orders are down, MBA purchase applications are down.  Many signs of a dark immediate economic future.  Oh yeah, and GDP is growing at a slower rate than was expected.

If this debt ceiling thing becomes the mess that it looks like it could, it may well start  us down the road to a fresh recession.  The economy is already stalled at this point, this could stick a fork in any progress made.

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America is a hurricane, and the only people who do not hear the sound are those fortunate if incredibly stupid and smug White Protestants who live in the center, in the serene eye of the big wind.

Norman Mailer, Advertisements for Myself

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And there was progress made.  Without stimulus, there would be millions less jobs out there than there are now.  Unemployment would be significantly worse.  The dollar, for all its weakness, would be even weaker than it is now.  States, which are in horrible condition fiscally (due in part to balanced budget amendments in their state constitutions, AHEM) would be considerably worse.

There may well be progress made this weekend.  The Senate is going to go discuss the Reid plan and should be able to have some kind of a vote (barring a filibuster) on the Senate floor by Sunday, leaving some time to at least get this to a vote on the floor of the house before this debt ceiling bomb goes off on August 2nd.  This weekend is going to go a long way to figuring out whether the economy will move along with the possibility of finding some strength, or whether we sink into recession part II.

Part one sucked, in part my job disappeared because of it, and I still haven’t fully recovered.  Let’s get this debt ceiling stuff finished, so we can all get on with our lives, and we can get to getting America working again.

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That’s it from here, America.  G’night.

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