It is less than 24 hours before the polls close here in New York, and less than 24 hours before some of the biggest battleground states will be decided in tomorrows election. So I’m gonna explain a few things about why I am voting the way I’m voting tomorrow.
One: I am Voting For Barack Obama because he will cut my taxes. I will pay more under John McCain, therefore there is no incentive to vote for him, on this count anyway.
Two: I am voting for Barack Obama because he will bring to a close the terrible chapter in American history that is the Iraq war. John McCain wants to stay indefinitely despite the fact that the Iraqis now want us out, and have a sovereign government of their own making decisions there.
Three: I am voting for Barack Obama because his plan for the environment is more well rounded. They both have a cap and trade system ready to go, but McCain’s Lexington plan is less inclusive, and has lower standards for cutting Co2 emissions.
Four: I am voting for Barack Obama because he is the better candidate. That simple.
That bit is done. Next.
A Final look at the polls.
The Numbers have moved in Barack Obama’s favor over the last few days. The real clear politics poll average, which had the Obama lead shrink from 7.9% to 6 percent, has in fact re-widened to a national average of 7.3%. The general tenor of the polls is pretty simple. The low percentage on the McCain side is 42% of the populous from CBS news, and on the high side he gets 46% of the vote which he gets in several polls, most notably Rasmussen. Barack Obama lowest poll percentage is 48%, from IBD/TIPP, to 55% from Gallup. All polls show Barack Obama leading. The smallest lead is 5%, in two polls, Those Being the aforementioned IBD/TIPP poll and Diageo/Hotline. The Largest lead is 11%, from Gallup.
The poll that I generally think of as the best indicator of what will actually happen, Zogby, has Obama leading by 7%, 51% – 44%.
A quick look at state polls in battleground states, from Zogby we have Barack Obama with a 7% lead in Virginia, a 14% lead in Pennsylvania, a 6% lead in Ohio, a 2% lead in Florida, and a 1% McCain lead in North Carolina, and a 5% lead for him in Indiana.
And according to Realclearpolitics, there are 9 states in the toss up category. 6 go for McCain and 3 for Obama. If you give John McCain the Victory in every state that he is leading in in tossup and leaner states, and do the same for Barack Obama, this is how things shake out.
A 338-200 electoral college vote win for Barack Obama over John McCain. John McCain wins 24 states in this model, while Obama wins 26 states and the District of Columbia. Even if you give McCain Florida Virginia and Ohio, states Sen. Obama has a narrow lead in, Obama still wins, but by the much closer margin 278-260.
I’ll be voting as early as me and the wife can get out to vote. After that I will be on twitter, look for Miketherhino.
A viddy or two, A few quotes, and I am outta here.
First up, a viddy that I have posted before, but it’s so nice I had to post it twice. Sepultura. Refuse! Resist! (It IS METAL MONDAY after all!)
And Now, General Dwight D. Eisenhower, giving his farewell address. This speech is famous for coining a phrase. “Military-Industrial Complex” This is the second half of the speech. you really should listen to the entire thing.
That’s it for me. Don’t forget to Vote!
Today’s Nuggets, Via Wikiquote: We must be ready to dare all for our country. For history does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid. We must acquire proficiency in defense and display stamina in purpose. We must be willing, individually and as a Nation, to accept whatever sacrifices may be required of us. A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both. Dwight D. Eisenhower
Political agitation, by the passions it arouses or the convictions it engenders, may in fact stimulate men to the violation of the law. Detestation of existing policies is easily transformed into forcible resistance of the authority which puts them in execution, and it would be folly to disregard the causal relation between the two. Yet to assimilate agitation, legitimate as such, with direct incitement to violent resistance, is to disregard the tolerance of all methods of political agitation which in normal times is a safeguard of free government. Learned Hand